Introduction by Croakey: Earlier this year, Amnesty International compiled a list of the many ways the Trump Administration was “recklessly assaulting global efforts to combat climate change”.
Meanwhile, the tenth report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change makes clear that the Administration’s attacks on science and climate action have had harmful consequences for the health and safety of current and future generations, as Croakey reported when the report was released last week.
It’s not surprising then that this week’s midterm elections, delivering a “scathing rebuke” to President Donald Trump, are also inspiring some hope for renewed climate action, especially with COP31 climate negotiations just around the corner.
However, researchers Isabelle Zhu-Maguire and Dr Bill Kakenmaster sound some notes of caution in their analysis below.
Isabelle Zhu-Maguire and Bill Kakenmaster write:
The Democrats won a landslide victory in the US midterm elections on Tuesday, taking control of both the US House of Representatives and Senate. As commentators have pointed out, Democratic control could be good news for the climate.
This article lays out how the midterms could impact US climate policy – and how they might not.
Following the midterms, financial capital shifted away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. Voters largely blamed US President Donald Trump for rising gas and diesel prices caused by his war in Iran, leading to a massive, but perhaps unsurprising, ‘tumble’ in the price of oil.
Conversely, renewable energy stocks have surged. These trends suggest that shareholders worldwide believe that without this war, oil will be less profitable.
Democrats will now have a majority in both chambers of Congress, giving them the ability to conduct oversight. They are reportedly planning to unleash an ‘onslaught’ of investigations into the Trump administration’s dealings with the oil and gas industry.
It has been suggested that Democrats could investigate a deal Trump made to produce one million barrels of oil per day in Venezuela, or one made to purchase 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia. These efforts could unwind these deals and harm the fossil fuel industry’s reputation, given the extent of possible corruption.
Voters also rejected AI data centres en masse this election, which is significant for US climate action. There were 47 proposals to restrict data centres in 12 states in the midterms. All but one proposal is on track to fail.
The American people have clearly signalled that AI data centres’ social and environmental harms are not welcome.
Democrats had plenty of success at the state and local level, too. As Ean Tofoya from Green Latinos emphasised at a Climate Action Network US press conference, new Democratic leadership at the state level may lead to greater climate adaptation measures and local energy transitions.
Dr Ed Maibach is a Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at George Mason University and an expert on climate change communications.
What doesn’t change
While Democrats’ massive election victory is cause for climate optimism, two things probably won’t change as a result of the midterms.
First, the US isn’t going to rejoin the Paris Agreement anytime soon.
Although 77 percent of Americans support Paris and prominent, pro-climate Democrats saw big wins on Tuesday, Congress doesn’t decide whether the US is in or out.
That decision lies with the President – in other words, Donald Trump, who has one of the worst environmental records of any president in US history and has rolled back environmental policies swifter and more aggressively during his second term.
During a ceremony where Trump signed an executive order pulling the US out of Paris for the second time, he called the agreement a “ripoff”.
Second, the US probably won’t see any new federal climate legislation either.
For the time being, affordability, government corruption and the war in Iran have largely pushed climate change off the political agenda, despite the fact that a majority of Americans support federal policy to reduce emissions and promote clean energy.
And even if Democrats did pass new climate legislation, Trump would almost certainly prevent it from becoming law. He recently quipped: “I guess I’ll become Mr Veto.”
For better or worse, power over US climate policy is largely concentrated in the executive branch, which means that broader, more impactful climate policy measures will likely have to wait until after the 2028 presidential election.
Renewed hope
Still, the midterms have breathed new life into the movement for climate action.
Climate activists are going into COP31 with renewed hope following Tuesday’s elections.
Reverend Michael Malcolm, the coauthor of Climate Justice, Climate Hope, said on Friday: “The future looks bright now.”
This election has the potential to galvanise climate activists in the US. Whilst this was not a ‘climate election’, US climate organisations like Climate Hawks Vote played a key role in flipping many Republican seats.
Progressive Democratic candidate William Lawrence, founder of the Sunrise Movement, also flipped a Republican seat in Michigan’s 7th congressional district, which Trump won in 2024.
Ed Markey, one of the co-sponsors of Green New Deal and American Clean Energy and Security Act, won his re-election campaign for the US Senate in Massachusetts. Sheldon Whitehouse also won re-election in Rhode Island after sharply criticising what he called “climate hushing”.
The climate movement needs strong leaders to champion the bold policy measures needed to break our dependence on fossil fuels and cut emissions. That’s exactly what they got on Tuesday.
As emphasised by Climate Action Network US, ‘This is a moment to deliver’.
This combination of hope for climate action and shame for fossil fuels and resource extraction has the potential to spread internationally. We have already seen mining-backed Australian minor party One Nation remove mentions of Trump from their websites.
COP31 marks the third year in a row in which the US will not send an official delegation of negotiators. However, American climate activists will be on the ground with a renewed cause – a renewed hope for a 2028 Democratic president who could rejoin Paris and ramp up climate ambition.
With the world having watched this deep blue tsunami on Tuesday, America’s new sense of optimism could be contagious in Antalya.
A very expensive night for Big Oil
Author bios
Isabelle Zhu-Maguire is a PhD candidate at the Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs, Department of International Relations within the Australian National University. Her thesis investigates the ways in which Australia listens and responds to the climate advocacy of Pacific Island Nations. She has conducted extensive research into the experiences of women in Afghanistan and their perspectives and realities living through conflict, oppression, and climate change. Isabelle has also been advocating for greater youth inclusion within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. She is a member of Croakey Health Media, and contributes the Pacific Islands focus column.
Dr Bill Kakenmaster is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the School of Regulation and Global Governance at the Australian National University. He received his PhD from the University of Notre Dame in 2025. His research has been published in several academic outlets, including Climate Policy, Global Environmental Politics, Perspectives on Politics, and Nature Climate Change, and was cited in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report and the 2023 Economic Report of the President.
See Croakey’s archive of articles on the Trump Administration; and on COP31
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